EMAIL EXCHANGE PATTERNS CAN PREDICT IMPENDING CORPORATE DISASTER

Would it not be nice to see the cracks in a dam-wall of a corporation that is about to undergo a catastrophic collapse?
A cybernetic crystal ball if you will.

As an organisation nears a point of a major corporate catastrophe there are certainly some indications of it. Indicators available to some, but not all of the personnel. An astute Director or CEO might certainly be in the position, assuming experience and eagle eye, high level oversight.
Financial reports, Revenues or exposures, external climate (both atmospheric and political), coffee room conversation... There are however many if's in the above telltales.

Would it not be nice if there was a dashboard indicator;
an 'All is well -----+----- Run for the hills' telltale. Well, it appears that some innovative research may actually give us the capability to do just that. Using an unlikely tool, email (e.g.: Exchange) messaging logs.

Ronald Menezes an Associate professor with Research interests in Complex Networks has recently presented to the International Workshop on Complex Networks. Summarising his research, Dr Menzes has analysed the MS-Exchange logs of Enron's top ~150 staffers (the deciders) in the 18 months immediately before its collapse.

The scientific method (Karl Popper's take on it) calls for postulating a theorem and then attempting to disprove it. Dr. Menezes was expecting to find a burst in communications after crisis event, what he had found, astounded him. It appears that prior to the key disaster events, the communications increased by almost 90%, further communication became clustered. Key personnel split into 'cliques', an e-space equivalent of huddled groups whispering amongst themselves, falling silent when a third party nears. A good analogy since the increase in communication was matched by a corresponding fall in communication with others.

So what does that mean?
First, the data is content independent one does not need to search the actual body of the email. Merely the list of the addresses. A complex social network can be established from that datum. That information alone is valuable and can be used e.g.: for fraud detection using Link Analysis.

This meta-data, notable only for its anomalous frequency can then be used for predicting a crisis scenario.

In practice, it is then possible to construct an addon for MS-Exchange or other commercial mail packages where this algorithm is used as an early warning sign. Of course, certain caveats must be considered.

• First, the baseline must be established so that we know the ordinary ebbs and flows of email volumes.

• Second, a note of caution that whilst a good indicator of anomalous condition, it may be imprudent to start ringing alarm bells based purely on this single indicator.

A more appropriate response would be to heighten the Corporate Governance posture.

Whilst by this late in the game, the prevention of a disaster may not be possible, certainly certain steps can be taken to soften the blow. If only in preparing appropriate PR response that is so essential in handling many of the large corporate wrecks.

Call Mr. Wulf at NOMEONESTIQ to talk how we can help you.